Hydrogen is widely proposed for the freight and heavy-duty segments that resist direct electrification, but the supporting evidence has been developed largely for high-income markets and is split across separate literatures on technology readiness, production cost and vehicle economics, none of which answers the question facing an emerging-market decision-maker: whether a given hydrogen technology is at once deployable, affordable and clean in that country. This study answers the question end to end for Türkiye, by separating global technology maturity from an emerging-market readiness level scored against local manufacturing, infrastructure, regulation, workforce and supply chain, and by joining that readiness assessment to a single cost and emissions chain running from the electrolyzer to the dispenser nozzle and on to the vehicle. Readiness transfers unevenly: the gap between the global frontier and what Türkiye can currently build, staff and regulate is about two levels for hydrogen engines and large-scale alkaline electrolysis, but four to six levels for fuel cell vehicles, high-pressure storage and stack manufacturing. Renewable hydrogen can be produced for roughly 4 USD/kg at the plant gate yet reaches a captive fleet at nearly twice that figure, and at such a delivered price no hydrogen truck competes with diesel. The electricity source, rather than the powertrain, governs the climate outcome: hydrogen produced from the current Turkish grid carries well-to-wheel emissions two to two and a half times those of diesel, whereas dedicated renewable supply cuts them by about 70%. Hydrogen is therefore not a single proposition. Renewable-coupled alkaline electrolysis is supported by cost, emissions and industrial feasibility alike; battery electrification is the near-term answer for road freight; and hydrogen engines are justified by deployability rather than economics, within defined transitional niches. Readiness, cost and emissions must therefore be assessed together, since each alone points to a different technology.
International Energy Agency. Global EV Outlook 2024: Moving towards Increased Affordability. IEA Publications: Paris, France, 2024.
Hydrogen Council. Hydrogen Insights 2023: An Updated Perspective on Hydrogen Market Development and Actions. Hydrogen Council: Brussels, Belgium, 2023.
European Commission. A Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate-Neutral Europe, COM/2020/301 Final. European Commission: Brussels, Belgium, 2020.
California Energy Commission and California Air Resources Board. Joint agency staff report on Assembly Bill 126: 2024 annual assessment of the hydrogen refueling network in California. Report CEC-600-2025-025, Sacramento, CA, USA, June 2025. Available Online: https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/CEC-600-2025-025.pdf.
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Basic Hydrogen Strategy (Revised). Government of Japan: Tokyo, Japan, 2023.
Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Türkiye hydrogen Technologies Strategy and Roadmap. MENR: Ankara, Türkiye, 2023. Available Online: https://enerji.gov.tr/Media/Dizin/SGB/en/HSP_en/ETKB_Hydrogen_T_Strategies.pdf.
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction: Scaling up Electrolysers to Meet the 1.5 °C Climate Goal. IRENA: Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2024.
Staffell, I.; Scamman, D.; Velazquez Abad, A.; Balcombe, P.; Dodds, P. E.; Ekins, P.; et al. The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in the global energy system. Energy Environ. Sci. 2019, 12(2), 463–491.
Tanç, B.; Arat, H. T.; Baltacıoğlu, E.; Aydın, K. Overview of the next quarter century vision of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2019, 44(20), 10120–10128.
Mankins, J. C. Technology Readiness Levels: A White Paper. NASA Office of Space Access and Technology: Washington, DC, USA, 1995.
Akyuz, E.; Tezer, T. Techno-economic feasibility and regression analysis of green hydrogen production from solar and wind energy in Türkiye. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2025, 142, 1184–1195. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.02.151.
Balcı, Y.; Erbay, C. Green hydrogen production from offshore wind: A techno-economic analysis for Türkiye. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2025, 97, 377–390. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.11.431.
Magnino, A.; Marocco, P.; Saarikoski, A.; Ihonen, J.; Rautanen, M.; Gandiglio, M. Total cost of ownership analysis for hydrogen and battery powertrains: A comparative study in Finnish heavy-duty transport. J. Energy Storage 2024, 99, 113215. doi: 10.1016/j.est.2024.113215.
Wang, Z.; Acha, S.; Bird, M. H.; Sunny, N.; Stettler, M.; Wu, B.; et al. A total cost of ownership analysis of zero emission powertrain solutions for the heavy goods vehicle sector. J. Clean. Prod. 2023, 434, 139910. Available Online: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652623040684.
Ledna, C.; Muratori, M.; Yip, A.; Jadun, P.; Hoehne, C.; Podkaminer, K. Assessing total cost of driving competitiveness of zero-emission trucks. iScience 2024, 27, 109385.
Cunanan, C.; Tran, M.-K.; Lee, Y.; Kwok, S.; Leung, V.; Fowler, M. A review of heavy-duty vehicle powertrain technologies: Diesel engine vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. Clean Technol. 2021, 3(2), 474–489.
Wang, J.; Wang, H.; Fan, Y. Techno-economic challenges of fuel cell commercialization. Engineering 2018, 4(3), 352–360.
Sim, K.; Vijayagopal, R.; Kim, N.; Rousseau, A. Optimization of component sizing for a fuel cell-powered truck to minimize ownership cost. Energies 2019, 12(6), 1125. doi: 10.3390/en12061125.
Sand, M.; Skeie, R. B.; Sandstad, M.; Krishnan, S.; Myhre, G.; Bryant, H.; et al. A multi-model assessment of the global warming potential of hydrogen. Commun. Earth Environ. 2023, 4, 203. doi: 10.1038/s43247-023-00857-8.
Iyer, R. K.; Kelly, J. C.; Elgowainy, A. Vehicle-cycle and life-cycle analysis of medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks in the United States. Sci. Total Environ. 2023, 891, 164093. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164093.
Grigoriev, S. A.; Fateev, V. N.; Bessarabov, D. G.; Millet, P. Millet. Current status, research trends, and challenges in water electrolysis science and technology. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2020, 45(49), 26036–26058.
Schmidt, O.; Gambhir, A.; Staffell, I.; Hawkes, A.; Nelson, J.; Few, S. Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2017, 42(52), 30470–30492.
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024. IRENA: Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2025.
Carmo, M.; Fritz, D. L.; Mergel, J.; Stolten, D. A comprehensive review on PEM water electrolysis. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2013, 38(12), 4901–4934.
Sobol', I. M. Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates. Math. Comput. Simul. 2001, 55(1–3), 271–280.
Saltelli, A.; Ratto, M.; Andres, T.; Campolongo, F.; Cariboni, J.; Gatelli, D.; et al. Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. Wiley: Chichester, UK, 2008.
Saltelli, A.; Annoni, P.; Azzini, I.; Campolongo, F.; Ratto, M.; Tarantola, S. Variance based sensitivity analysis of model output: Design and estimator for the total sensitivity index. Comput. Phys. Commun. 2010, 181(2), 259–270. doi: 10.1016/j.cpc.2009.09.018.
Republic of Türkiye Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK). Electricity and Petroleum Market Tariff and Price Data. EPDK: Ankara, Türkiye, 2025.
International Energy Agency. Emissions Factors 2025. IEA: Paris, France, 2025.
International Energy Agency. Life Cycle Upstream Emission Factors 2024—Database Documentation. IEA: Paris, France, 2024. Available Online: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/62c02614-3753-48f6-b5f8-2206ecf356f0/IEAupstreamlifecycleemissionfactors_2024.pdf.
Martinez Lopez, V. A.; Ziar, H.; Haverkort, J. W.; Zeman, M.; Isabella, O. Dynamic operation of water electrolyzers: A review for applications in photovoltaic systems integration. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2023, 182, 113407. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113407.
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. Carbon Neutrality in the UNECE Region: Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment of Electricity Sources. UNECE: Geneva, Switzerland, 2022. Available Online: https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/LCA_3_FINAL%20March%202022.pdf.
Dolan, S. L.; Heath, G. A. Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of utility-scale wind power. J. Ind. Ecol. 2012, 16(S1), S136–S154.
Moradi, R.; Groth, K. M. Hydrogen storage and delivery: Review of the state-of-the-art technologies and risk and reliability analysis. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2019, 44(23), 12254–12269.
Wang, Y.; Ruiz Diaz, D. F.; Chen, K. S.; Wang, Z.; Adroher, X. C. Materials, technological status, and fundamentals of PEM fuel cells—A review. Mater. Today 2020, 32, 178–203.
Cullen, D. A.; Neyerlin, K. C.; Ahluwalia, R. K.; Mukundan, R.; More, K. L.; Borup, R. L.; et al. New roads and challenges for fuel cells in heavy-duty transportation. Nat. Energy 2021, 6(5), 462–474.
Robinius, M.; Otto, A.; Heuser, P.; Welder, L.; Syranidis, K.; Ryberg, D. S.; et al. Linking the power and transport sectors—Part 1: The principle of sector coupling. Energies 2017, 10(7), 956.
Bethoux, O. Hydrogen fuel cell road vehicles and their infrastructure: An option towards an environmentally friendly energy transition. Energies 2020, 13(22), 6132.
Kurtz, J.; Sprik, S.; Bradley, T. H. Review of transportation hydrogen infrastructure performance and reliability. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2019, 44(23), 12010–12023.
Yoshida, T.; Kojima, K. Toyota MIRAI fuel cell vehicle and progress toward a future hydrogen society. Electrochem. Soc. Interface 2015, 24(2), 45–49.
Hyundai Motor Company. NEXO Fuel Cell SUV Technical Specifications. Hyundai Technical Documentation. Hyundai Motor Company: Seoul, South Korea, 2023.
Verhelst, S.; Wallner, T. Hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engines. Prog. Energy Combust. Sci. 2009, 35(6), 490–527.
Yip, H. L.; Srna, A.; Yuen, A. C. Y.; Kook, S.; Taylor, R. A.; Yeoh, G. H.; et al. A review of hydrogen direct injection for internal combustion engines: Towards carbon-free combustion. Appl. Sci 2019, 9(22), 4842.
Mohammadi, A.; Shioji, M.; Nakai, Y.; Ishikura, W.; Tabo, E. Performance and combustion characteristics of a direct injection SI hydrogen engine. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2007, 32(2), 296–304.
Bekdemir, C.; Doosje, E.; Seykens, X. H2-ICE technology options of the present and the near future. SAE Technical Paper. In Proceedings of SAE 2022 Annual World Congress Experience (WCX 2022), Detroit, MI, USA, 5–7 April 2022; 2022-01-0472. doi: 10.4271/2022-01-0472.
Luo, Q.; Hu, J. B.; Sun, B.; Liu, F.; Wang, X.; Li, C.; et al. Experimental investigation of combustion characteristics and NOx emission of a turbocharged hydrogen internal combustion engine. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2019, 44(11), 5573–5584. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2018.08.184.
Özyalcin, C.; Sterlepper, S.; Roiser, S.; Eichlseder, H.; Pischinger, S. Exhaust gas aftertreatment to minimize NOx emissions from hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engine. Appl. Energy 2024, 353(Part A), 122045. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122045.
Southwest Research Institute. SwRI's H2-ICE consortium demonstrates ultra-low emissions from hydrogen-fueled heavy-duty engine. San Antonio, TX, USA, May 2024. Available Online: https://www.swri.org/newsroom/press-releases/swri-s-h2-ice-consortium-demonstrates-ultra-low-emissions-hydrogen-fueled-heavy-duty-engine.
Barthelemy, H.; Weber, M.; Barbier, F. Hydrogen storage: Recent improvements and industrial perspectives. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2017, 42(11), 7254–7262.
Rivard, E.; Trudeau, M.; Zaghib, K. Hydrogen storage for mobility: A review. Materials 2019, 12(12), 1973.
Ahluwalia, R. K.; Peng, J. K.; Roh, H. S.; Hua, T. Q.; Houchins, C.; James, B. D. Supercritical cryo-compressed hydrogen storage for fuel cell electric buses. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2018, 43(22), 10215–10231.
Reddi, K.; Elgowainy, A.; Rustagi, N.; Guber, E. Impact of hydrogen SAE J2601 fueling methods on fueling time of light-duty fuel cell electric vehicles. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2017, 42(26), 16675–16685.
Durbin, D. J.; Malardier-Jugroot, C. Review of hydrogen storage techniques for on-board vehicle applications. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2013, 38(34), 14595–14617.
Buttler, A.; Spliethoff, H. Current status of water electrolysis for energy storage, grid balancing and sector coupling via power-to-gas and power-to-liquids: A review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2018, 82, 2440–2454.
Laguna-Bercero, M. A. Recent advances in high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cells: A review. J. Power Sources 2012, 203, 4–16.
Hauch, A.; Küngas, R.; Blennow, P.; Hansen, A. B.; Hansen, J. B.; Mathiesen, B. V.; et al. Recent advances in solid oxide cell technology for electrolysis. Science 2020, 370(6513), eaba6118.
SAE International. SAE J2601: Fueling Protocols for Light Duty Gaseous Hydrogen Surface Vehicles. SAE Standard J2601_202005. SAE International: Warrendale, PA, USA, 2020.
International Organization for Standardization. ISO 19880-1: Gaseous Hydrogen—Fuelling Stations—Part 1: General Requirements. ISO: Geneva, Switzerland, 2019.
International Energy Agency. Global Hydrogen Review 2025. IEA: Paris, France, 2025. Available Online: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2025.
Kwak, J.; Lee, H.; Park, S.; Park, J.; Jung, S. Risk assessment of a hydrogen refueling station in an urban area. Energies 2023, 16(9), 3963.
Ono, K.; Kato, E.; Tsunemi, K. Construction of a structural equation model to identify public acceptance factors for hydrogen refueling stations under the provision of risk and safety information. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2022, 47(75), 31974–31984. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.07.139.
